Despite the fact that a “constitutional declaration” places the civilian-dominated cabinet in charge of the country, the generals are largely calling the shots. They control the means of coercion and a tentacular network of parastatal companies, which capture much of Sudan’s wealth and consolidate their power at the expense of their civilian partners in government. For the activists who mobilised for radical change, this is a bitter pill to swallow. Many of them see Hamdok and his cabinet as puppets of the generals.

Democratic forces can still salvage Sudan’s transition, but Hamdok will need to show leadership and receive foreign backing. A new policy brief by ECFR’s visiting fellow Jean-Baptiste Gallopin shows how Europeans can provide this help.

The main findings are:

• Sudan’s transition to constitutional rule is failing: the reform of political institutions has not begun, while the country faces an intensifying economic crisis, a dramatic decline in living conditions, and a flare-up in localised violence.
• The civilian wing of the Sudanese state is bankrupt but unwilling to confront powerful generals, who control of a sprawling network of companies and keep the central bank and the Ministry of Finance on life support to gain political power.
• The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia appear to be positioning a paramilitary leader known as Hemedti as Sudan’s next ruler, but the military is fiercely hostile towards him.
• Western countries and international institutions have let civilians down: they failed to provide the financial and political support that would allow Hamdok to hold his own against the generals.
• The transition will only succeed if the government stabilises the economy and civilians work hard to tilt the balance of power away from the military and towards themselves.
• Europeans should use their relationships with Hamdok, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia to establish civilian control of the generals’ networks of companies.

The paper draws on 54 recent interviews with senior Sudanese politicians, cabinet advisers, party officials, journalists, former military officers, activists, and representatives of armed groups, as well as foreign diplomats, researchers, analysts, and officials from international institutions.

It explores the international and domestic dynamics that account for the transition’s stalemate; shows why establishing civilian control over parastatal firms is an urgent economic priority and a prerequisite for civilian rule; and lays out the ways Europeans can push in this direction.

About the author:

Dr Jean-Baptiste Gallopin is a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, based in Berlin. Gallopin has been following Sudanese affairs since 2010 in various capacities, including as the Sudan researcher for Amnesty International, as a political analyst for a risk advisory firm, and as an independent consultant. His co-authored report for Amnesty, entitled “We Had No Time to Bury Them – War Crimes in Sudan’s Blue Nile State” was the first to document war crimes and potential crimes against humanity in the Blue Nile conflict.

Gallopin has published in Le Monde Diplomatique, the Washington Post, Democracy & Security, Aeon, Libération, Le Figaro, and Jadaliyya. He regularly appears as a commentator on international media, including Al Jazeera English, RFI, France 24, Deutsche Welle, and Bloomberg. In addition to his PhD, he holds a MA and a MPhil in Sociology from Yale, a MA in Arab Studies from Georgetown University, and a BA in Politics from Sciences Po Lyon.

The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. This report, like all publications of the European Council on Foreign Relations, represents only the views of its author.